By Stephen Collinson
America’s President Donald Trump is facing mounting pressure as the war with Iran drags into its 10th week, far longer than the quick operation his administration initially appeared to expect. Despite repeated claims from the White House that peace talks are progressing and victory is near, the conflict has become increasingly difficult for Trump to contain both militarily and politically.
The president now finds himself cornered by two major challenges. Internationally, Iran has maintained strong leverage through its control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. Domestically, rising fuel prices, declining public support for the war, and falling approval ratings have narrowed Trump’s political options.
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CNN reports that the administration is now relying on a proposed one-page agreement being negotiated through Pakistan. The document would pause the conflict and allow both sides 30 days to address unresolved issues. However, analysts say such a brief agreement may not be enough to resolve decades of tensions between Washington and Tehran, including disputes over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, missile programs, sanctions, and regional influence.
Iran is also demanding major sanctions relief to revive its economy while seeking recognition of its strategic influence over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran was expected to submit its response to mediators this week, with some negotiators saying the talks represent the closest the two sides have come to ending the conflict.
Still, hopes of peace have repeatedly risen and fallen. Trump has several times announced that a deal was imminent, only for negotiations to stall as Iran resisted American demands.
The conflict has also been marked by rapidly changing US strategies. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently suggested that “Operation Epic Fury” had effectively ended, only for Trump to launch a new naval initiative called “Project Freedom” aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the operation was paused within hours after escorting only a few vessels.
Experts describe these shifting tactics as part of a “silver bullet” approach — the belief that a single decisive move could force Iran into submission. Earlier actions included the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, major bombing campaigns, and naval blockades targeting Iranian shipping and military sites.
Despite the pressure, Iran’s leadership structure has largely remained intact. Hardline figures quickly replaced commanders who were killed, and there is little sign that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is collapsing. Analysts say Iran’s rulers now see mere survival as a victory.
Trump has meanwhile continued to downplay the scale of the conflict. Speaking at the White House, he referred to the war as “a skirmish” and insisted the United States was performing well. He compared it to a rapid American operation in Venezuela that ended within a day.
Critics argue such remarks reveal uncertainty within the administration about how to end the war. While Trump’s improvisational style has sometimes worked politically, analysts say the White House increasingly appears without a coherent long-term strategy.
Military experts note that the conflict illustrates how smaller nations can resist superior powers through asymmetric warfare. Although the US military has reportedly inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s naval and air forces, Washington’s decision not to deploy large numbers of ground troops has limited the chances of a decisive military victory.
Iran’s ability to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has meanwhile placed enormous pressure on the global economy. Oil prices have surged, shipping routes remain threatened, and American consumers are facing high fuel costs.
Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund told CNN that the war demonstrates the gap between America’s military strength and its ability to achieve lasting strategic success. Battlefield victories, he said, have not translated into clear political gains.
There has also been no major uprising inside Iran against the government. Tehran has not abandoned its nuclear ambitions or surrendered its enriched uranium stockpiles. Concerns remain that Iran could eventually rebuild proxy networks in places such as Lebanon and Gaza.
Anja Manuel, executive director of the Aspen Security Forum, warned that the conflict remains unresolved despite announcements of ceasefires and shifting operations. She noted that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, oil prices remain high, and economic pain continues to spread globally.
The conflict has also exposed weaknesses in Washington’s negotiating position. Rubio recently admitted that one of America’s key goals is to restore unrestricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet before the war began, the route was already open. Iran has now demonstrated that it can use control of the strait as a powerful bargaining tool.
As negotiations continue, pressure is growing for a swift resolution to prevent further military and economic damage. But CNN suggests that Trump’s changing strategies, repeated declarations of imminent peace, and reliance on a simple one-page proposal have raised fresh doubts about whether the administration has a realistic plan to end the conflict.
-This article is abridged from CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/07/politics/trump-iran-war-exit-strategy-analysis?Date=20260507&Profile=CNN&utm_content=1778128183&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook
